EPSTEIN
page 2 / 3897 . OCR, unverified
USD727m in inflows; Al Rajhi USD504m, NCB USD385m.
Figure 1:FTSE Saudi Arabia stocks : potential flows of USD4.5bn
Constituent
Sector
Saudi Basic Industries Corp
Saudi Telecom Co
Samba Financial Group
Saudi Arabian Mining Co-Maaden
Almarai Co Ltd
Riyad Bank
Saudi Electricity Co
Alinma Bank
Others
Total
Source: Deutsche Bank, FTSE, Bloomberg Finance LP
Chemicals
Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Banks
National Commercial Bank SJSC
Banks
Telecommunications
Banks
Mining
Food Producers
Banks
Electricity
EFTA01435576
--- PAGE 2 ---
Banks
Marketcap
(USD bn)
213
Net marketcap
(USD bn)
Expected FTSE
EM weight
0.48%
0.34%
0.26%
0.16%
0.15%
0.12%
0.12%
0.11%
0.09%
0.08%
1.10%
Funds flow
(USD m)
727
504
385
239
222
186
180
170
137
EFTA01435577
--- PAGE 3 ---
126
1,654
Aleksandar Stojanovski
Research Analyst
+971-4-361-1786
Deutsche Bank AG/London
Distributed on: 29/03/2018 03:12:07 GMT
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its
research reports. Thus, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider
this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.
7T2se3r00t6kwoPa
EFTA01435578
--- PAGE 4 ---
March 2018
Saudi Arabia
Figure 2: Expected weight of Saudi Arabia on the FTSE Secondary EM index
28.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0.0%
5.0%
China Taiwan India Brazil South
Africa
Source: Deutsche Bank, FTSE, Bloomberg Finance LP
13.3%
11.3%
9.1%
7.9%
4.3% 4.3%
3.5% 3.2% 3.0%
Russia Mexico Thailand Malaysia Saudi
Arabia
Others
12.1%
FTSE inclusion done; MSCI EM decision to be announced in June
Saudi Arabia is also nominated for inclusion in the widely tracked MSCI EM
Index,
with a decision on inclusion to be announced in June '18. A favorable
decision
could translate into some USD39bn in inflows, with actual inclusion expected
for June '19. For more details on Saudi inclusion into MSCI EM please refer
our
strategy report dated 20-Feb-18. It is interesting to observe that Saudi
Arabia
has already witnessed foreign fund inflows of USD619m in Jan'18 - the highest
inflows on record - followed by USD364m in Feb'18. The inclusion by FTSE and
the impending decision by MSCI could mark the start of a sustained period of
higher inflows into Saudi equities, in our view.
Page 2
Deutsche Bank AG/London
EFTA01435579
--- PAGE 5 ---
March 2018
Saudi Arabia
Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
*Other information available upon request
*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless
otherwise indicated and are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information
is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject
companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations
or estimates made on securities other than
the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published
company report or visit our global disclosure
look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/-
CompanySearch. Aside from within this
report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://-
research.db.com/Research/Topics/Equities?
topicId=RB0002. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information
before investing.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of
the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition,
the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any
compensation for providing a specific recommendation
or view in this report. Aleksandar Stojanovski
Equity Rating Key
Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder
return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current
price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield )
we recommend that investors buy the stock.
Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder
return, we recommend that investors sell the stock.
Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and,
based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy
or Sell.
Newly issued research recommendations and target prices
supersede previously published research.
Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships
Deutsche Bank AG/London
Page 3
EFTA01435580
--- PAGE 6 ---
March 2018
Saudi Arabia
Additional Information
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank
AG or one of its affiliates (collectively
"Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable
and has been obtained from public sources
believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its
accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to thirdparty
websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche